UPM-Kymmene Oyj

HLSE:UPM Stock Report

Market Cap: €13.5b

UPM-Kymmene Oyj Valuation

Is UPM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of UPM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: UPM (€25.32) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€45.04)

Significantly Below Fair Value: UPM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for UPM?

Key metric: As UPM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for UPM. This is calculated by dividing UPM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is UPM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio19.4x
Earnings€695.00m
Market Cap€13.53b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does UPM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for UPM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average23.3x
HUH1V Huhtamäki Oyj
14.1x9.0%€3.5b
KEMIRA Kemira Oyj
16.9x10.5%€2.9b
SUZB3 Suzano
17.9x19.5%R$74.9b
METSB Metsä Board Oyj
44.2x53.0%€1.6b
UPM UPM-Kymmene Oyj
19.4x22.5%€13.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: UPM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.4x) compared to the peer average (23.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does UPM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Forestry Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
UPM 19.4xIndustry Avg. 12.5xNo. of Companies8PE0816243240+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: UPM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.4x) compared to the European Forestry industry average (12.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is UPM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

UPM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio19.4x
Fair PE Ratio26.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: UPM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst UPM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€25.32
€32.78
+29.5%
13.3%€43.50€27.00n/a16
Nov ’25€27.05
€33.39
+23.4%
12.2%€43.50€27.00n/a16
Oct ’25€30.04
€34.95
+16.3%
11.7%€45.00€28.00n/a16
Sep ’25€30.58
€35.92
+17.5%
11.1%€45.00€28.00n/a16
Aug ’25€30.10
€36.33
+20.7%
11.0%€45.00€28.00n/a16
Jul ’25€32.85
€36.65
+11.6%
10.1%€45.00€28.00n/a14
Jun ’25€35.15
€36.51
+3.9%
10.1%€45.00€28.00n/a14
May ’25€32.92
€36.09
+9.6%
10.9%€45.00€28.00n/a14
Apr ’25€30.87
€34.17
+10.7%
12.6%€44.00€25.00n/a14
Mar ’25€30.95
€34.06
+10.0%
12.5%€44.00€26.00n/a14
Feb ’25€30.01
€37.18
+23.9%
11.7%€44.00€30.00n/a14
Jan ’25€34.06
€36.37
+6.8%
13.2%€47.00€28.00n/a14
Dec ’24€32.48
€36.46
+12.3%
12.7%€47.00€28.00n/a15
Nov ’24€32.34
€36.42
+12.6%
12.4%€47.00€28.00€27.0515
Oct ’24€32.47
€34.83
+7.3%
14.0%€44.00€26.00€30.0415
Sep ’24€31.67
€34.15
+7.8%
14.9%€44.00€26.00€30.5815
Aug ’24€30.08
€34.03
+13.1%
14.2%€42.00€26.00€30.1015
Jul ’24€27.27
€35.03
+28.5%
15.3%€45.00€25.00€32.8515
Jun ’24€28.00
€34.54
+23.3%
16.5%€45.00€25.00€35.1515
May ’24€28.90
€35.98
+24.5%
16.4%€45.00€27.00€32.9215
Apr ’24€30.95
€37.32
+20.6%
16.4%€48.00€27.00€30.8714
Mar ’24€35.17
€37.80
+7.5%
16.1%€48.00€27.00€30.9513
Feb ’24€33.85
€37.75
+11.5%
16.2%€46.00€27.00€30.0111
Jan ’24€34.93
€37.76
+8.1%
17.0%€45.00€27.00€34.0611
Dec ’23€35.28
€37.95
+7.6%
16.2%€45.00€27.00€32.4812
Nov ’23€34.39
€37.95
+10.4%
16.2%€45.00€27.00€32.3412

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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