UPM-Kymmene Oyj's (HEL:UPM) Dividend Will Be €0.75

UPM-Kymmene Oyj (HEL:UPM) will pay a dividend of €0.75 on the 7th of November. This makes the dividend yield 4.9%, which will augment investor returns quite nicely.

Check out our latest analysis for UPM-Kymmene Oyj

UPM-Kymmene Oyj's Payment Has Solid Earnings Coverage

A big dividend yield for a few years doesn't mean much if it can't be sustained. Before making this announcement, the company's dividend was much higher than its earnings. This situation certainly isn't ideal, and could place significant strain on the balance sheet if it continues.

Looking forward, earnings per share is forecast to rise exponentially over the next year. Assuming the dividend continues along recent trends, we estimate that the payout ratio could reach 54%, which is in a comfortable range for us.

UPM-Kymmene Oyj Has A Solid Track Record

The company has a sustained record of paying dividends with very little fluctuation. Since 2014, the annual payment back then was €0.60, compared to the most recent full-year payment of €1.50. This works out to be a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.6% a year over that time. Companies like this can be very valuable over the long term, if the decent rate of growth can be maintained.

Dividend Growth Potential Is Shaky

Some investors will be chomping at the bit to buy some of the company's stock based on its dividend history. Let's not jump to conclusions as things might not be as good as they appear on the surface. Over the past five years, it looks as though UPM-Kymmene Oyj's EPS has declined at around 22% a year. This steep decline can indicate that the business is going through a tough time, which could constrain its ability to pay a larger dividend each year in the future. It's not all bad news though, as the earnings are predicted to rise over the next 12 months - we would just be a bit cautious until this becomes a long term trend.

UPM-Kymmene Oyj's Dividend Doesn't Look Sustainable

Overall, it's nice to see a consistent dividend payment, but we think that longer term, the current level of payment might be unsustainable. Although they have been consistent in the past, we think the payments are a little high to be sustained. Overall, we don't think this company has the makings of a good income stock.

It's important to note that companies having a consistent dividend policy will generate greater investor confidence than those having an erratic one. Still, investors need to consider a host of other factors, apart from dividend payments, when analysing a company. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for UPM-Kymmene Oyj (of which 1 doesn't sit too well with us!) you should know about. Is UPM-Kymmene Oyj not quite the opportunity you were looking for? Why not check out our selection of top dividend stocks.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.