Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Enagás, S.A. (BME:ENG) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Enagás
How Much Debt Does Enagás Carry?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2021 Enagás had debt of €5.05b, up from €4.48b in one year. On the flip side, it has €995.5m in cash leading to net debt of about €4.05b.
A Look At Enagás' Liabilities
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Enagás had liabilities of €752.7m due within 12 months and liabilities of €5.34b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of €995.5m as well as receivables valued at €234.7m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by €4.86b.
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of €4.74b, we think shareholders really should watch Enagás's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Enagás has a rather high debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.9 which suggests a meaningful debt load. However, its interest coverage of 5.9 is reasonably strong, which is a good sign. The bad news is that Enagás saw its EBIT decline by 18% over the last year. If earnings continue to decline at that rate then handling the debt will be more difficult than taking three children under 5 to a fancy pants restaurant. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Enagás can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Happily for any shareholders, Enagás actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last three years. That sort of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee suit.
Our View
On the face of it, Enagás's EBIT growth rate left us tentative about the stock, and its net debt to EBITDA was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But on the bright side, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. It's also worth noting that Enagás is in the Gas Utilities industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. Looking at the balance sheet and taking into account all these factors, we do believe that debt is making Enagás stock a bit risky. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but we'd generally feel more comfortable with less leverage. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Enagás is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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About BME:ENG
Enagás
Develops, operates, and maintains gas infrastructures in Spain and internationally.
Undervalued with proven track record.