Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Aena S.M.E., S.A. (BME:AENA) After Its First-Quarter Report

Investors in Aena S.M.E., S.A. (BME:AENA) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.6% to close at €228 following the release of its quarterly results. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of €1.3b and statutory earnings per share of €2.01 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Aena S.M.E is executing in line with expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Following the latest results, Aena S.M.E's 18 analysts are now forecasting revenues of €6.14b in 2025. This would be a credible 4.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 4.4% to €13.74. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €6.14b and earnings per share (EPS) of €13.74 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Aena S.M.E

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at €217. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Aena S.M.E analyst has a price target of €248 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €129. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Aena S.M.E's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 5.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 19% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 3.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Aena S.M.E's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Aena S.M.E going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Aena S.M.E has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.