Fluidra, S.A. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Shareholders of Fluidra, S.A. (BME:FDR) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 11% to €22.64 following its latest half-yearly results. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of €1.2b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 5.2% to hit €0.40 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Fluidra after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Fluidra

Following last week's earnings report, Fluidra's 14 analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be €2.06b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 13% to €0.72. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €2.06b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.74 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at €23.26. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Fluidra analyst has a price target of €26.20 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €17.50. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 3.3% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 11% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.7% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Fluidra is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €23.26, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Fluidra analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Fluidra that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com