Is Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles, S.A. (BME:CAF) Potentially Undervalued?

While Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles, S.A. (BME:CAF) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it saw a decent share price growth in the teens level on the BME over the last few months. With many analysts covering the stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

See our latest analysis for Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles

Is Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles still cheap?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 20% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles today, you’d be paying a fair price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth €49.68, then there isn’t much room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. Is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles’s share price is quite volatile, we could potentially see it sink lower (or rise higher) in the future, giving us another chance to buy. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.

What kind of growth will Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles generate?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles' earnings over the next few years are expected to double, indicating a very optimistic future ahead. This should lead to stronger cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? CAF’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the financial strength of the company. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough conviction to buy should the price fluctuates below the true value?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on CAF, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for the company, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. At Simply Wall St, we found 1 warning sign for Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles and we think they deserve your attention.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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