Will BBVA’s 2025 Buyback and Middle East Push Change Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria’s (BME:BBVA) Narrative

• Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) has recently reported on its 2025 share buyback program and secured in-principle regulatory approval from Abu Dhabi Global Market to obtain a Category 4 licence, enabling an expanded wholesale banking offering for corporate and institutional clients in the Middle East.
• Together, the active buyback activity and planned Middle East expansion highlight BBVA’s parallel focus on capital return and growing fee-based wholesale banking services in new geographies.
• We’ll now examine how BBVA’s updated share buyback program could influence its investment narrative around capital management and earnings resilience.

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Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Investment Narrative Recap

To own BBVA, you generally need to believe it can keep turning its strong emerging market footprint and digital banking capabilities into resilient earnings while managing political, currency and regulatory risk. The 2025 share buyback update and Abu Dhabi licence approval look additive but not transformative in the near term, so the key short term swing factor remains how BBVA balances capital returns with buffers against macro shocks in Mexico and Turkey.

Against that backdrop, the 2025 share buyback program stands out as the most relevant recent announcement, because it links directly to BBVA’s capital management narrative and its capacity to keep rewarding shareholders while absorbing higher regulatory and emerging market risk. How comfortably BBVA can sustain both sizeable buybacks and dividends alongside elevated bad loans and tighter rules on capital and liquidity will be central to assessing the durability of its earnings and payout profile over time...

Read the full narrative on Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (it's free!)

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's narrative projects €39.4 billion revenue and €11.4 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 7.9% yearly revenue growth and about a €1.3 billion earnings increase from €10.1 billion today.

Uncover how Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's forecasts yield a €18.65 fair value, a 4% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members have published 11 fair value estimates for BBVA, ranging from €10.53 to about €26.95, highlighting how far apart individual views can be. Against this spread of opinions, BBVA’s ongoing focus on capital returns via dividends and buybacks sits alongside regulatory and emerging market pressures that could materially influence how those cash flows evolve, so it is worth weighing several perspectives before forming a view.

Explore 11 other fair value estimates on Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria - why the stock might be worth as much as 39% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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