Is BBVA (BME:BBVA) Still Undervalued After a 78% One-Year Shareholder Return?

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BME:BBVA) has drawn investor attention lately, as its shares have shown noticeable movement over the past month. The market is weighing up recent performance with a focus on value and outlook.

See our latest analysis for Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria.

BBVA’s share price may have cooled after its recent rally, but momentum remains unmistakable when you step back. Year-to-date, the share price return stands at 69.01%, and the 1-year total shareholder return is a remarkable 78.17%. Over five years, long-term investors have seen total returns of more than 700%, reflecting a sustained appetite for BBVA’s growth story even as sentiment shifts with current market events.

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The question now is whether BBVA’s current price offers investors an attractive entry point, or if the rally has already factored in expectations for future growth. Could there still be room for further upside?

Most Popular Narrative: 5.9% Undervalued

With Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria’s fair value set at €16.69 by the most followed narrative, the current share price of €15.72 sits just below this target. This suggests momentum may not yet be exhausted. The analyst outlook draws on upbeat revisions in growth and capital returns, setting the scene for a potentially meaningful catalyst.

Analysts are raising price targets, citing strong earnings momentum and above-average capital returns. Improved revenue growth and higher profit margins are driving positive revisions to future expectations.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what’s fueling this bullish tilt? Under the surface, the narrative banks on robust efficiency improvements and a profit forecast that could break with industry norms. There are bold projections in the methodology. Find out how these ambitious targets might influence BBVA’s value story.

Result: Fair Value of €16.69 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, heavy exposure to volatile emerging markets and shifting interest rates could quickly threaten BBVA’s growth story if conditions move against expectations.

Find out about the key risks to this Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria narrative.

Build Your Own Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to put your own perspective to the test, dive into the data and shape your own view in just a few minutes, then Do it your way

A great starting point for your Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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