Estimating The Fair Value Of Agat Ejendomme A/S (CPH:AGAT)

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Agat Ejendomme A/S (CPH:AGAT) as an investment opportunity by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Agat Ejendomme

Is Agat Ejendomme fairly valued?

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Levered FCF (DKK, Millions)	kr.70.7m	kr.45.3m	kr.33.9m	kr.28.0m	kr.24.6m	kr.22.5m	kr.21.2m	kr.20.3m	kr.19.8m	kr.19.4m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ -51.38%	Est @ -35.91%	Est @ -25.08%	Est @ -17.5%	Est @ -12.19%	Est @ -8.48%	Est @ -5.88%	Est @ -4.06%	Est @ -2.78%	Est @ -1.89%
Present Value (DKK, Millions) Discounted @ 11%	kr.63.9	kr.37.0	kr.25.1	kr.18.7	kr.14.8	kr.12.3	kr.10.4	kr.9.0	kr.7.9	kr.7.0

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = kr.206m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 11%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₀ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = kr.19m× (1 + 0.2%) ÷ (11%– 0.2%) = kr.186m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= kr.186m÷ ( 1 + 11%)¹⁰= kr.67m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is kr.273m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of kr.1.9, the company appears about fair value at a 20% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

Important assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Agat Ejendomme as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 11%, which is based on a levered beta of 2.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Agat Ejendomme, we've put together three essential aspects you should further examine:

1. Risks: As an example, we've found 3 warning signs for Agat Ejendomme (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you need to consider before investing here.
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
3. Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the CPSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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