Green Hydrogen Systems (CPH:GREENH) Will Have To Spend Its Cash Wisely

We can readily understand why investors are attracted to unprofitable companies. For example, biotech and mining exploration companies often lose money for years before finding success with a new treatment or mineral discovery. But while the successes are well known, investors should not ignore the very many unprofitable companies that simply burn through all their cash and collapse.

Given this risk, we thought we'd take a look at whether Green Hydrogen Systems (CPH:GREENH) shareholders should be worried about its cash burn. In this report, we will consider the company's annual negative free cash flow, henceforth referring to it as the 'cash burn'. The first step is to compare its cash burn with its cash reserves, to give us its 'cash runway'.

View our latest analysis for Green Hydrogen Systems

When Might Green Hydrogen Systems Run Out Of Money?

A company's cash runway is calculated by dividing its cash hoard by its cash burn. As at December 2021, Green Hydrogen Systems had cash of kr.267m and no debt. Looking at the last year, the company burnt through kr.348m. So it had a cash runway of approximately 9 months from December 2021. That's quite a short cash runway, indicating the company must either reduce its annual cash burn or replenish its cash. However, if we extrapolate the company's recent cash burn trend, then it would have a longer cash run way. The image below shows how its cash balance has been changing over the last few years.

How Is Green Hydrogen Systems' Cash Burn Changing Over Time?

Whilst it's great to see that Green Hydrogen Systems has already begun generating revenue from operations, last year it only produced kr.5.2m, so we don't think it is generating significant revenue, at this point. As a result, we think it's a bit early to focus on the revenue growth, so we'll limit ourselves to looking at how the cash burn is changing over time. Remarkably, it actually increased its cash burn by 512% in the last year. Given that sharp increase in spending, the company's cash runway will shrink rapidly as it depletes its cash reserves. While the past is always worth studying, it is the future that matters most of all. For that reason, it makes a lot of sense to take a look at our analyst forecasts for the company.

How Hard Would It Be For Green Hydrogen Systems To Raise More Cash For Growth?

Since its cash burn is moving in the wrong direction, Green Hydrogen Systems shareholders may wish to think ahead to when the company may need to raise more cash. Issuing new shares, or taking on debt, are the most common ways for a listed company to raise more money for its business. One of the main advantages held by publicly listed companies is that they can sell shares to investors to raise cash and fund growth. We can compare a company's cash burn to its market capitalisation to get a sense for how many new shares a company would have to issue to fund one year's operations.

Green Hydrogen Systems' cash burn of kr.348m is about 30% of its kr.1.2b market capitalisation. That's not insignificant, and if the company had to sell enough shares to fund another year's growth at the current share price, you'd likely witness fairly costly dilution.

Is Green Hydrogen Systems' Cash Burn A Worry?

We must admit that we don't think Green Hydrogen Systems is in a very strong position, when it comes to its cash burn. While its cash burn relative to its market cap wasn't too bad, its increasing cash burn does leave us rather nervous. Considering all the measures mentioned in this report, we reckon that its cash burn is fairly risky, and if we held shares we'd be watching like a hawk for any deterioration. Separately, we looked at different risks affecting the company and spotted 4 warning signs for Green Hydrogen Systems (of which 1 is significant!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.