Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft Just Missed EPS By 21%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft (ETR:HLAG) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.5% to €147 in the week after its latest half-yearly results. Revenue came in at €8.8b, beating expectations by a remarkable 96%, while statutory earnings per share (EPS) were €2.44, missing estimates by an equally remarkable 21%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Hapag-Lloyd

After the latest results, the ten analysts covering Hapag-Lloyd are now predicting revenues of €17.5b in 2024. If met, this would reflect an okay 5.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 123% to €9.71. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €17.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of €8.28 in 2024. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a decent improvement in earnings per share in particular.

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of €122, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Hapag-Lloyd at €180 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €90.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Hapag-Lloyd's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 10% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 15% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.2% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Hapag-Lloyd's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Hapag-Lloyd's earnings potential next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €122, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Hapag-Lloyd going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Hapag-Lloyd (of which 1 can't be ignored!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.