An Intrinsic Calculation For Fraport AG (ETR:FRA) Suggests It's 39% Undervalued

Key Insights

• Fraport's estimated fair value is €76.58 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Fraport is estimated to be 39% undervalued based on current share price of €46.45
• Analyst price target for FRA is €55.19 which is 28% below our fair value estimate

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Fraport AG (ETR:FRA) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Fraport

Is Fraport Fairly Valued?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF (€, Millions)	-€475.0m	-€181.8m	€223.0m	€498.0m	€766.0m	€975.7m	€1.16b	€1.32b	€1.45b	€1.54b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x5	Analyst x8	Analyst x6	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 27.37%	Est @ 19.21%	Est @ 13.49%	Est @ 9.49%	Est @ 6.69%
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 12%	-€424	-€145	€159	€316	€434	€493	€525	€532	€520	€495

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €2.9b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (0.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 12%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €1.5b× (1 + 0.2%) ÷ (12%– 0.2%) = €13b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= €13b÷ ( 1 + 12%)¹⁰= €4.2b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €7.1b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of €46.5, the company appears quite good value at a 39% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Fraport as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 12%, which is based on a levered beta of 2.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Fraport

Moving On:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Fraport, we've put together three further aspects you should consider:

1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Fraport (1 is potentially serious!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
2. Future Earnings: How does FRA's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the XTRA every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.