Does DHL Stock Still Offer Value After a 40% Surge in the Last Year?

• If you are wondering whether Deutsche Post is still worth considering after its strong run, or if the smart money has already moved on, you are in the right place to explore what the current price really implies.
• The stock has climbed 3.1% over the last week, 4.0% over the past month, and is now up 38.5% year to date and 39.8% over the last year. That naturally raises the question of whether further upside remains or whether risks are building.
• Much of this momentum has been supported by steady demand for global logistics and parcel services as e commerce volumes remain resilient, alongside ongoing efficiency and network optimization initiatives at the group level. Investors have also been paying attention to Deutsche Post's positioning in cross border shipping and its continued push into higher margin logistics solutions. Together, these factors help explain why sentiment has improved.
• On our framework, Deutsche Post scores a strong 5 out of 6 on valuation, suggesting it screens as undervalued on most of the checks we run, though not all. Next, we will break down what different valuation approaches say about the stock today, and then return to a more complete way of thinking about valuation that ties the numbers to the narrative.

Deutsche Post delivered 39.8% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Logistics industry.

Approach 1: Deutsche Post Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a company is worth by projecting the cash it can generate in the future and then discounting those cash flows back to today, to account for risk and the time value of money.

For Deutsche Post, the latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is about €6.3 billion. Analysts expect Free Cash Flow to dip near term and then grow again, with projections reaching around €4.7 billion by 2029, and further gradual growth extrapolated out to 2035 based on Simply Wall St assumptions. These forecasts feed into a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, which values the business at roughly €85.50 per share.

Compared with the current market price, this implies the shares trade at about a 45.1% discount to their estimated intrinsic value. This suggests the market is pricing Deutsche Post well below its projected cash generating potential in euros.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Deutsche Post is undervalued by 45.1%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 907 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Deutsche Post.

Approach 2: Deutsche Post Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies like Deutsche Post, the Price to Earnings (PE) ratio is a practical way to judge valuation because it links what you pay today directly to the profits the business is generating. In general, higher growth and lower risk justify a higher, or more generous, PE multiple, while slower growth or higher uncertainty argue for a lower, more conservative one.

Deutsche Post currently trades at about 14.9x earnings, which is slightly below the Logistics industry average of around 15.9x and well below the broader peer group average of roughly 20.5x. To go a step further, Simply Wall St calculates a proprietary Fair Ratio of 16.0x for Deutsche Post, which represents the PE investors might reasonably expect based on the company’s earnings growth profile, margins, industry, market cap and risk characteristics. This Fair Ratio is more informative than a simple peer or industry comparison because it tailors the benchmark to Deutsche Post’s specific fundamentals rather than assuming all logistics stocks deserve the same multiple. Since the current 14.9x PE sits meaningfully below the 16.0x Fair Ratio, the stock appears attractively valued on an earnings basis.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1448 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Deutsche Post Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple framework on Simply Wall St’s Community page where you connect your view of a company’s story, like Deutsche Post’s role in e commerce, automation and cost discipline, to your own forecast for its future revenue, earnings and margins. You can then translate that into a Fair Value you compare with today’s share price to decide whether to buy, hold or sell, knowing that this Fair Value will automatically update as new news or earnings arrive. Different investors can legitimately reach very different conclusions. For example, one optimistic Deutsche Post Narrative might assume earnings climb steadily and justify a Fair Value closer to the most bullish analyst target of about €60, while a more cautious Narrative might lean toward the bearish end near €34, reflecting concerns about regulation and trade headwinds.

Do you think there's more to the story for Deutsche Post? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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