Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that DIC Asset AG (ETR:DIC) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for DIC Asset
What Is DIC Asset's Net Debt?
As you can see below, at the end of December 2022, DIC Asset had €3.10b of debt, up from €2.17b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it also had €188.4m in cash, and so its net debt is €2.91b.
A Look At DIC Asset's Liabilities
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that DIC Asset had liabilities of €572.0m falling due within a year, and liabilities of €2.94b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had €188.4m in cash and €181.1m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by €3.15b.
This deficit casts a shadow over the €665.2m company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, DIC Asset would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
DIC Asset shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (15.4), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 2.0 times the interest expense. The debt burden here is substantial. On a lighter note, we note that DIC Asset grew its EBIT by 20% in the last year. If sustained, this growth should make that debt evaporate like a scarce drinking water during an unnaturally hot summer. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine DIC Asset's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, DIC Asset generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 86% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That positions it well to pay down debt if desirable to do so.
Our View
On the face of it, DIC Asset's net debt to EBITDA left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But on the bright side, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Once we consider all the factors above, together, it seems to us that DIC Asset's debt is making it a bit risky. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but we'd generally feel more comfortable with less leverage. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 4 warning signs with DIC Asset (at least 2 which can't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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About XTRA:DIC
Branicks Group
Branicks Group AG (formerly DIC Asset AG) is Germany’s leading listed specialist for office and logistics real estate with 25 years of experience on the real estate market and with access to a broad-based network of investors.
Fair value with moderate growth potential.