Stock Analysis

Merck KGaA's (ETR:MRK) five-year total shareholder returns outpace the underlying earnings growth

XTRA:MRK
Source: Shutterstock

Stock pickers are generally looking for stocks that will outperform the broader market. And while active stock picking involves risks (and requires diversification) it can also provide excess returns. To wit, the Merck KGaA share price has climbed 60% in five years, easily topping the market return of 7.1% (ignoring dividends). On the other hand, the more recent gains haven't been so impressive, with shareholders gaining just 4.2%, including dividends.

Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 4.1%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.

View our latest analysis for Merck KGaA

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Over half a decade, Merck KGaA managed to grow its earnings per share at 19% a year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 10% over the same period. So one could conclude that the broader market has become more cautious towards the stock.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
XTRA:MRK Earnings Per Share Growth September 27th 2024

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Merck KGaA the TSR over the last 5 years was 70%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Merck KGaA shareholders are up 4.2% for the year (even including dividends). But that was short of the market average. It's probably a good sign that the company has an even better long term track record, having provided shareholders with an annual TSR of 11% over five years. It may well be that this is a business worth popping on the watching, given the continuing positive reception, over time, from the market. Is Merck KGaA cheap compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on German exchanges.

New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One Place

We've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.

• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency
• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile
• Track the Fair Value of your stocks

Try a Demo Portfolio for Free

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.