Results: Aurubis AG Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

Shareholders of Aurubis AG (ETR:NDA) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 12% to €84.00 following its latest full-year results. Revenues were €17b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at €9.53, an impressive 22% ahead of estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Aurubis

After the latest results, the seven analysts covering Aurubis are now predicting revenues of €20.4b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a decent 19% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to crater 33% to €6.37 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €19.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of €6.46 in 2025. There doesn't appear to have been a major change in sentiment following the results, other than the small increase to revenue estimates.

Even though revenue forecasts increased, there was no change to the consensus price target of €71.90, suggesting the analysts are focused on earnings as the driver of value creation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Aurubis analyst has a price target of €90.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €56.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Aurubis' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 19% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 7.6% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 1.9% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Aurubis is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Aurubis analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Aurubis (1 doesn't sit too well with us) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.