Aurubis AG Just Missed Revenue By 7.7%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a good week for Aurubis AG (ETR:NDA) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 7.1% to €81.25. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at €4.2b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at €9.53 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Aurubis

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Aurubis' eight analysts is for revenues of €18.8b in 2025. This would reflect a reasonable 7.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dive 48% to €7.38 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €19.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of €6.37 in 2025. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a decent improvement in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of €75.40, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Aurubis at €90.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €58.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Aurubis' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 9.9% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 6.6% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.2% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Aurubis to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Aurubis following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Aurubis analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Aurubis is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is significant...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.