Aurubis AG Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

Investors in Aurubis AG (ETR:NDA) had a good week, as its shares rose 6.5% to close at €71.30 following the release of its second-quarter results. Revenues were €4.4b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of €1.88 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 11%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Aurubis

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Aurubis from eight analysts is for revenues of €17.3b in 2024. If met, it would imply a credible 4.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 114% to €7.79. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €17.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of €7.65 in 2024. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.

The average price target was steady at €76.78even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Aurubis analyst has a price target of €90.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €60.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Aurubis'historical trends, as the 8.8% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 10% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 1.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that Aurubis is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at €76.78, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Aurubis analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Aurubis , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.