The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that HeidelbergCement AG (ETR:HEI) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
Check out our latest analysis for HeidelbergCement
What Is HeidelbergCement's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that HeidelbergCement had debt of €8.41b at the end of June 2021, a reduction from €10.4b over a year. However, it also had €1.87b in cash, and so its net debt is €6.54b.
A Look At HeidelbergCement's Liabilities
According to the last reported balance sheet, HeidelbergCement had liabilities of €5.79b due within 12 months, and liabilities of €11.4b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had €1.87b in cash and €3.14b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling €12.2b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's huge €11.1b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
HeidelbergCement's net debt to EBITDA ratio of about 2.0 suggests only moderate use of debt. And its commanding EBIT of 11.3 times its interest expense, implies the debt load is as light as a peacock feather. Importantly, HeidelbergCement grew its EBIT by 33% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine HeidelbergCement's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, HeidelbergCement recorded free cash flow worth a fulsome 84% of its EBIT, which is stronger than we'd usually expect. That positions it well to pay down debt if desirable to do so.
Our View
Happily, HeidelbergCement's impressive conversion of EBIT to free cash flow implies it has the upper hand on its debt. But the stark truth is that we are concerned by its level of total liabilities. Looking at all the aforementioned factors together, it strikes us that HeidelbergCement can handle its debt fairly comfortably. On the plus side, this leverage can boost shareholder returns, but the potential downside is more risk of loss, so it's worth monitoring the balance sheet. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Be aware that HeidelbergCement is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About XTRA:HEI
Heidelberg Materials
Produces and distributes cement, aggregates, ready-mixed concrete, and asphalt worldwide.
Undervalued with excellent balance sheet and pays a dividend.