Heidelberg Materials Valuation

Is HEI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HEI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HEI (€120) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€239.96)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HEI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HEI?

Key metric: As HEI is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HEI. This is calculated by dividing HEI's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HEI's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11.6x
Earnings€1.85b
Market Cap€21.48b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HEI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HEI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average39.4x
STO3 Sto SE KGaA
10.4x3.5%€687.6m
SY1 Symrise
36.4x13.7%€14.3b
BAS BASF
76.7x31.4%€38.1b
EVK Evonik Industries
34x32.9%€7.8b
HEI Heidelberg Materials
11.6x8.7%€21.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HEI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.6x) compared to the peer average (39.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HEI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Basic Materials Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HEI 11.6xIndustry Avg. 12.7xNo. of Companies9PE01632486480+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HEI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.6x) compared to the European Basic Materials industry average (12.7x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HEI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HEI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.6x
Fair PE Ratio17.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HEI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.1x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HEI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€120.00
€126.55
+5.5%
15.9%€160.00€91.00n/a19
Dec ’25€119.40
€122.97
+3.0%
15.7%€160.00€91.00n/a19
Nov ’25€102.30
€111.09
+8.6%
14.6%€150.00€84.00n/a19
Oct ’25€97.18
€111.26
+14.5%
14.9%€150.00€84.00n/a19
Sep ’25€95.66
€112.84
+18.0%
15.3%€150.00€84.00n/a19
Aug ’25€94.20
€111.16
+18.0%
15.3%€150.00€84.00n/a19
Jul ’25€96.44
€110.61
+14.7%
14.4%€150.00€84.00n/a18
Jun ’25€95.72
€110.61
+15.6%
14.4%€150.00€84.00n/a18
May ’25€94.64
€107.71
+13.8%
15.4%€150.00€81.00n/a17
Apr ’25€101.95
€99.65
-2.3%
15.3%€150.00€81.00n/a17
Mar ’25€89.88
€95.23
+5.9%
10.4%€115.00€78.00n/a18
Feb ’25€85.24
€89.41
+4.9%
11.8%€105.00€70.00n/a18
Jan ’25€80.94
€84.32
+4.2%
10.8%€99.00€70.00n/a19
Dec ’24€75.54
€83.48
+10.5%
10.9%€103.00€70.00€119.4019
Nov ’24€69.34
€83.37
+20.2%
10.1%€103.00€70.00€102.3019
Oct ’24€73.52
€88.88
+20.9%
30.1%€200.00€69.00€97.1820
Sep ’24€73.72
€86.33
+17.1%
31.9%€200.00€55.00€95.6620
Aug ’24€74.64
€84.83
+13.7%
33.1%€200.00€55.00€94.2020
Jul ’24€75.20
€81.52
+8.4%
35.3%€200.00€55.00€96.4420
Jun ’24€68.24
€80.50
+18.0%
35.8%€200.00€55.00€95.7220
May ’24€68.56
€77.18
+12.6%
39.6%€200.00€55.00€94.6419
Apr ’24€67.26
€73.70
+9.6%
43.3%€200.00€39.00€101.9519
Mar ’24€65.68
€68.72
+4.6%
46.7%€200.00€39.00€89.8819
Feb ’24€63.28
€58.87
-7.0%
13.2%€71.00€39.00€85.2420
Jan ’24€53.28
€53.92
+1.2%
17.1%€71.00€36.00€80.9420
Dec ’23€51.74
€53.97
+4.3%
18.6%€77.00€36.00€75.5420

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/27 20:35
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/27 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Heidelberg Materials AG is covered by 49 analysts. 18 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Félix BrunotteAlphaValue
Gerhard SchwarzBaader Helvea Equity Research
Tom ZhangBarclays