Evonik Industries (XTRA:EVK) Is Down 5.5% After Cutting 2025 Revenue and EBITDA Guidance

• Earlier this week, Evonik Industries AG revised its earnings guidance, projecting third-quarter 2025 revenue of €3.4 billion, down from €3.8 billion a year earlier, and lowered its full-year EBITDA forecast to €1.9 billion.
• This downward revision spotlights ongoing challenges across Evonik's segments, as expectations for an economic recovery in the second half of 2025 did not materialize and customer activity remained subdued.
• We will explore how this guidance cut, amid signs of continued weak demand, alters the outlook for Evonik's investment narrative.

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Evonik Industries Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Evonik Industries, an investor needs to believe that cost optimization, a shift into high-value specialty chemicals, and resilient segments like Healthcare and Nutrition will outweigh the near-term headwinds of weak end-market demand and sluggish economic recovery. The recent downward revision to revenue and EBITDA guidance directly impacts the biggest short-term catalyst, margin recovery from cost savings, while amplifying the primary risk that subdued demand will persist longer than anticipated, pressuring earnings momentum.

Among recent announcements, Evonik’s September partnership with Ethris to advance lipid nanoparticle technology stands out, as it supports growth opportunities in specialty healthcare applications, one of the few areas within the portfolio expected to remain resilient as cyclical segments lag. This development aligns with the company’s broader goal of reducing exposure to commodity businesses and provides some support for medium-term growth ambitions despite current setbacks.

However, what remains less discussed is the continued exposure to underperforming commodity chemicals, and how delays in exiting these segments could limit ...

Read the full narrative on Evonik Industries (it's free!)

Evonik Industries' outlook anticipates €15.2 billion in revenue and €779.3 million in earnings by 2028. This scenario is based on 1.1% annual revenue growth and a €356.3 million increase in earnings from the current level of €423.0 million.

Uncover how Evonik Industries' forecasts yield a €19.88 fair value, a 35% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Seven members of the Simply Wall St Community estimate Evonik’s fair value from €16.92 up to a striking €13,205.30. While many see opportunity, persistent weak demand in key sectors remains a challenge for the company’s recovery and profit growth, consider exploring these varied perspectives.

Explore 7 other fair value estimates on Evonik Industries - why the stock might be a potential multi-bagger!

Build Your Own Evonik Industries Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Evonik Industries research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Evonik Industries research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Evonik Industries' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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