Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of TUI AG (ETR:TUI1) After Its First-Quarter Report

TUI AG (ETR:TUI1) defied analyst predictions to release its first-quarter results, which were ahead of market expectations. It looks like a positive result overall, with revenues of €4.9b beating forecasts by 7.5%. Statutory losses of €0.17 per share were 7.5% smaller than the analysts expected, likely helped along by the higher revenues. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for TUI

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for TUI from twelve analysts is for revenues of €24.6b in 2025. If met, it would imply a credible 3.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €24.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.18 in 2025. So we can see that while the consensus made no real change to its revenue estimates, it also no longer provides an earnings per share estimate. This suggests that revenues are what the market is focusing on after the latest results.

We'd also point out that thatthe analysts have made no major changes to their price target of €10.28. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values TUI at €16.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €7.70. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that TUI's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 21% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.4% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that TUI is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their revenue estimates for next year, suggesting that the business is performing in line with expectations. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

At least one of TUI's twelve analysts has provided estimates out to 2027, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for TUI that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.