Is There An Opportunity With HelloFresh SE's (ETR:HFG) 49% Undervaluation?

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for HelloFresh is €48.39 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Current share price of €24.60 suggests HelloFresh is potentially 49% undervalued
• The €31.11 analyst price target for HFG is 36% less than our estimate of fair value

How far off is HelloFresh SE (ETR:HFG) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for HelloFresh

Is HelloFresh Fairly Valued?

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF (€, Millions)	€105.9m	€271.2m	€410.7m	€404.0m	€410.0m	€414.1m	€417.2m	€419.6m	€421.4m	€423.0m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x7	Analyst x6	Analyst x6	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 1.00%	Est @ 0.75%	Est @ 0.57%	Est @ 0.45%	Est @ 0.36%
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 4.9%	€101	€246	€356	€333	€323	€311	€298	€286	€274	€262

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €2.8b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 4.9%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €423m× (1 + 0.2%) ÷ (4.9%– 0.2%) = €8.9b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= €8.9b÷ ( 1 + 4.9%)¹⁰= €5.5b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €8.3b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of €24.6, the company appears quite undervalued at a 49% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at HelloFresh as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 4.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for HelloFresh

Looking Ahead:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For HelloFresh, there are three further aspects you should further examine:

1. Risks: You should be aware of the 3 warning signs for HelloFresh (2 are a bit concerning!) we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
2. Future Earnings: How does HFG's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every German stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.