HelloFresh Future Growth
Future criteria checks 3/6
HelloFresh is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 57.1% and 1.8% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 54.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 8.9% in 3 years.
Key information
57.1%
Earnings growth rate
54.42%
EPS growth rate
| Consumer Retailing earnings growth | 10.2% |
| Revenue growth rate | 1.8% |
| Future return on equity | 8.86% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 03 Jun 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Analysis Article • May 08
Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of HelloFresh SE (ETR:HFG) After Its First-Quarter Report
Shareholders might have noticed that HelloFresh SE ( ETR:HFG ) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The...Analysis Article • Nov 02
HelloFresh SE (ETR:HFG) Just Released Its Third-Quarter Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think
HelloFresh SE ( ETR:HFG ) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.1% to €7.02...Analysis Article • Aug 17
Earnings Miss: HelloFresh SE Missed EPS By 78% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
XTRA:HFG 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore HelloFresh's Fair Values from the Community and select yours As you...Recent updates
Narrative Update • May 24
HFG: Ongoing Downgrades And Margin Pressure Will Weigh On Shares
Analysts have slightly reduced their price targets on HelloFresh, trimming fair value estimates by €0.10 to €3.50. The revision reflects softer profit margin assumptions, slightly better revenue trends than previously modeled, a higher discount rate, and a shift to a higher future P/E multiple.Analysis Article • May 08
Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of HelloFresh SE (ETR:HFG) After Its First-Quarter Report
Shareholders might have noticed that HelloFresh SE ( ETR:HFG ) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The...Narrative Update • May 03
HFG: Weak 2025 Earnings And Soft 2026 Start Will Pressure Shares
Analysts have trimmed their average price targets on HelloFresh by a few euros, with cuts such as Deutsche Bank's move to €6. They are factoring in weaker 2025 results, a soft start to 2026, and slightly lower assumed future P/E multiples, despite modestly higher profit margin assumptions.Narrative Update • Apr 18
HFG: Weaker 2025 Outlook And Soft 2026 Start Will Drive Downside Risk
Analysts have trimmed their average price target on HelloFresh by around €2 to €3. This reflects recent target cuts and downgrades that cite weaker 2025 results and a softer start to 2026.
Narrative Update • Apr 04
HFG: Buybacks And Higher Future P/E Will Support Long-Term Earnings Visibility
Analysts have lowered the average price target on HelloFresh by roughly €4, citing weaker 2025 results, a soft start to 2026, and reduced growth and margin expectations. These factors contribute to a lower fair value estimate and a slightly higher assumed discount rate, even as future P/E assumptions edge higher.Narrative Update • Mar 21
HFG: Lower Future Earnings Assumptions And Index Move Will Shape Risk Reward
Analyst price targets for HelloFresh have been cut by around €2 to €4 in recent updates, as analysts factor in weaker expected revenue growth, slimmer profit margins, a higher discount rate, and recent downgrades to Hold with lower targets around €5.50 to €6. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates point to a more cautious stance on HelloFresh, with several bearish analysts trimming price targets and resetting expectations.Narrative Update • Mar 06
HFG: Index Changes And Softer 2025 Outlook Will Shape Future Risk Reward
Analysts have trimmed their average price target on HelloFresh, with recent cuts such as Deutsche Bank moving to €6 and Kepler Cheuvreux to €5.50, citing expectations for weaker 2025 results and a softer opening to 2026. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a more cautious tone, with price targets reset lower and ratings pulled back to neutral territory.
Narrative Update • Feb 20
HFG: Reset Expectations And AI System Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have trimmed their stance on HelloFresh, with a key price target cut from €10.50 to €5.50, citing what they describe as weak 2025 results and a soft start to 2026. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary has turned more cautious around HelloFresh, with the cut in the price target to €5.50 reflecting reduced confidence in the outlook that analysts describe as weak for 2025 and soft into 2026.Narrative Update • Feb 06
HFG: Index Shift And AI Recipe System Will Shape Future Risk Reward
Analysts have modestly revised their price target on HelloFresh, citing a slightly higher discount rate, a softer improvement in revenue trends and profit margins, and a higher assumed future P/E multiple as key drivers of the updated valuation. What's in the News HelloFresh SE is now included in the Germany SDAX (Total Return) Index.Narrative Update • Jan 23
HFG: AI Recipe System And Buyback Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have reduced their implied price target for HelloFresh to €15.00, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate, and future P/E that together point to a more conservative valuation framework. What's in the News HelloFresh SE has been removed from the Germany MDAX Index (Performance) and added to the Germany SDAX (Total Return) Index, reflecting a shift in its index classification within the German equity market (Key Developments).Analysis Article • Jan 21
Be Wary Of HelloFresh (ETR:HFG) And Its Returns On Capital
Did you know there are some financial metrics that can provide clues of a potential multi-bagger? One common approach...Narrative Update • Jan 08
HFG: Index Shift And Buybacks Will Support Long-Term Earnings Visibility
Analysts have slightly trimmed their price target on HelloFresh to reflect a lower fair value of €9.98, compared with €10.17 previously, as they factor in updated views on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E assumptions. What's in the News HelloFresh SE has been removed from the Germany MDAX Index (Performance).Narrative Update • Dec 23
HFG: Risk Reward Profile And Margins Will Shape Share Performance
Analysts have raised their price target on HelloFresh from EUR 7.60 to EUR 10.80, citing a more attractive risk reward profile supported by improved margin expectations and a lower implied future valuation multiple. Analyst Commentary While the latest upgrade highlights a more favorable risk reward setup for HelloFresh, sentiment across the broader analyst community remains mixed, with several cautious voices flagging execution and growth risks that could cap upside.Analysis Article • Dec 18
Is HelloFresh (ETR:HFG) Using Too Much Debt?
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...Narrative Update • Dec 09
HFG: Rising Price Target Will Highlight Improved Revenue Visibility Despite U.S. Competition
The Analyst Price Target for HelloFresh has risen from EUR 9.00 to EUR 10.80, as analysts highlight improving revenue growth prospects and a more attractive valuation, despite lingering competitive concerns in the U.S. market. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts point to a more favorable risk and reward profile for HelloFresh at current share levels, citing improving visibility on revenue growth and a valuation that now better reflects recent operational challenges.Analysis Article • Nov 22
Risks Still Elevated At These Prices As HelloFresh SE (ETR:HFG) Shares Dive 28%
Unfortunately for some shareholders, the HelloFresh SE ( ETR:HFG ) share price has dived 28% in the last thirty days...Analysis Article • Nov 02
HelloFresh SE (ETR:HFG) Just Released Its Third-Quarter Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think
HelloFresh SE ( ETR:HFG ) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.1% to €7.02...Narrative Update • Sep 11
Operational Improvements And AI Adoption Will Expand Global Offerings
Analysts have lowered their price targets for HelloFresh from €11.31 to €10.82 due to intensifying U.S. competition, reduced earnings visibility, and heightened uncertainty about growth prospects. Analyst Commentary Increasing competition in the U.S. market, especially for the Factor brand, is raising concerns about HelloFresh's growth prospects.Analysis Article • Sep 08
Investors Could Be Concerned With HelloFresh's (ETR:HFG) Returns On Capital
What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term...Narrative Update • Aug 19
Operational Improvements And AI Adoption Will Expand Global Offerings
The consensus analyst price target for HelloFresh has been revised downward, primarily due to a significant reduction in forecasted revenue growth, resulting in a lower fair value estimate of €11.53. What's in the News Increased equity buyback authorization by $25 million, bringing total to $100 million.Analysis Article • Aug 17
Earnings Miss: HelloFresh SE Missed EPS By 78% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
XTRA:HFG 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore HelloFresh's Fair Values from the Community and select yours As you...Analysis Article • Jul 30
Is HelloFresh (ETR:HFG) Using Debt Sensibly?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...Analysis Article • May 10
HelloFresh SE (ETR:HFG) Stock Rockets 35% As Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected
HelloFresh SE ( ETR:HFG ) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 35% in the last...Analysis Article • May 02
Analysts Are Updating Their HelloFresh SE (ETR:HFG) Estimates After Its First-Quarter Results
Investors in HelloFresh SE ( ETR:HFG ) had a good week, as its shares rose 7.8% to close at €9.15 following the release...Analysis Article • Apr 28
Here's Why HelloFresh (ETR:HFG) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...
New Narrative • Apr 24
Efficiency Programs And Food Market Diversification Will Unlock Future Potential
Strategic shift towards operational efficiency aims to boost profitability, improve margins, and enhance free cash flow long-term.Analysis Article • Apr 06
The Return Trends At HelloFresh (ETR:HFG) Look Promising
If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...Analysis Article • Mar 11
There's Reason For Concern Over HelloFresh SE's (ETR:HFG) Price
With a median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of close to 0.2x in the Consumer Retailing industry in Germany, you could...Analysis Article • Dec 31
Is HelloFresh (ETR:HFG) Using Debt Sensibly?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...Analysis Article • Dec 10
Are Investors Undervaluing HelloFresh SE (ETR:HFG) By 47%?
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, HelloFresh fair value estimate is €22.50 HelloFresh's €11.84...Analysis Article • Nov 19
Market Participants Recognise HelloFresh SE's (ETR:HFG) Revenues Pushing Shares 29% Higher
HelloFresh SE ( ETR:HFG ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 29% gain in the last month alone. Not all...Analysis Article • Oct 02
HelloFresh SE (ETR:HFG) Looks Just Right With A 26% Price Jump
Despite an already strong run, HelloFresh SE ( ETR:HFG ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 26% in the last...Analysis Article • Aug 18
Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By HelloFresh SE's (ETR:HFG) 26% Share Price Surge
HelloFresh SE ( ETR:HFG ) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 26% share price jump in the last month...Analysis Article • Aug 03
HelloFresh (ETR:HFG) Use Of Debt Could Be Considered Risky
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...Analysis Article • Jul 02
The Price Is Right For HelloFresh SE (ETR:HFG)
It's not a stretch to say that HelloFresh SE's ( ETR:HFG ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.1x seems quite...Analysis Article • May 05
Is HelloFresh (ETR:HFG) Using Too Much Debt?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...Analysis Article • Apr 08
Returns Are Gaining Momentum At HelloFresh (ETR:HFG)
If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. Typically, we'll...Analysis Article • Mar 09
HelloFresh SE's (ETR:HFG) Share Price Is Still Matching Investor Opinion Despite 46% Slump
To the annoyance of some shareholders, HelloFresh SE ( ETR:HFG ) shares are down a considerable 46% in the last month...Analysis Article • Jan 22
Shareholders Should Be Pleased With HelloFresh SE's (ETR:HFG) Price
When close to half the companies in Germany have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 16x, you may consider...Analysis Article • Jan 04
These 4 Measures Indicate That HelloFresh (ETR:HFG) Is Using Debt Extensively
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's...Analysis Article • Dec 17
HelloFresh (ETR:HFG) Might Have The Makings Of A Multi-Bagger
Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...Analysis Article • Oct 04
HelloFresh (ETR:HFG) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 6,549 | 82 | 117 | 354 | 11 |
| 12/31/2027 | 6,450 | 54 | 167 | 349 | 12 |
| 12/31/2026 | 6,300 | 25 | 127 | 282 | 10 |
| 3/31/2026 | 6,505 | -24 | 147 | 287 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 6,761 | -93 | 167 | 297 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 7,020 | -188 | 240 | 377 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 7,267 | -172 | 258 | 393 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 7,519 | -176 | 200 | 360 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 7,661 | -136 | 94 | 260 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 7,712 | -119 | 63 | 265 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 7,687 | -97 | 90 | 323 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 7,654 | -39 | 55 | 306 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 7,597 | 19 | 78 | 384 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 7,612 | 48 | -13 | 329 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 7,668 | 65 | -56 | 344 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 7,708 | 64 | -218 | 227 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 7,607 | 127 | -104 | 313 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 7,313 | 143 | -107 | 328 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 6,868 | 161 | -44 | 324 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 6,466 | 179 | 159 | 448 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 5,993 | 243 | 207 | 459 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 5,522 | 347 | 408 | 582 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 5,077 | 399 | 506 | 631 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 4,494 | 431 | 581 | 678 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 3,750 | 369 | 517 | 602 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 3,153 | 248 | 371 | 425 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 2,624 | 196 | 274 | 327 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 2,088 | 76 | 120 | 172 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 1,809 | -10 | N/A | 42 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 1,659 | -32 | N/A | 7 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 1,521 | -88 | N/A | -44 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 1,404 | -99 | N/A | -54 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 1,279 | -82 | N/A | -50 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 1,170 | -89 | N/A | -38 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 1,085 | -80 | N/A | -25 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 995 | -88 | N/A | -36 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 905 | -92 | N/A | -45 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 811 | -98 | N/A | -64 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 741 | -97 | N/A | -80 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 661 | -96 | N/A | -63 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 597 | -94 | N/A | -76 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 545 | -130 | N/A | -73 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 484 | -139 | N/A | -82 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 401 | -133 | N/A | -81 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 305 | -114 | N/A | -66 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: HFG is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.9%).
Earnings vs Market: HFG is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.
High Growth Earnings: HFG is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: HFG's revenue (1.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the German market (6.7% per year).
High Growth Revenue: HFG's revenue (1.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: HFG's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (8.9%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/03 06:30 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/03 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
HelloFresh SE is covered by 26 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Adrian Sanchez | Banco Santander |
| Andrew Ross | Barclays |
| Emily Johnson | Barclays |