Analysts Are Updating Their PUMA SE (ETR:PUM) Estimates After Its Full-Year Results

Last week saw the newest annual earnings release from PUMA SE (ETR:PUM), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of €8.6b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 3.0% to hit €2.03 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for PUMA

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from PUMA's 22 analysts is for revenues of €8.92b in 2024. This reflects a credible 3.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to step up 16% to €2.37. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €8.91b and earnings per share (EPS) of €2.49 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at €50.43, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on PUMA, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €88.00 and the most bearish at €40.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that PUMA's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 3.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 14% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 7.2% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that PUMA is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €50.43, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for PUMA going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with PUMA , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.