Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (ETR:HOT) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
Check out the opportunities and risks within the DE Construction industry.
What Is HOCHTIEF's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2022 HOCHTIEF had €5.42b of debt, an increase on €5.11b, over one year. However, it does have €5.22b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about €199.9m.
How Strong Is HOCHTIEF's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, HOCHTIEF had liabilities of €12.0b due within 12 months, and liabilities of €5.60b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of €5.22b as well as receivables valued at €7.08b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total €5.29b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of €3.59b, we think shareholders really should watch HOCHTIEF's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Looking at its net debt to EBITDA of 0.79 and interest cover of 2.6 times, it seems to us that HOCHTIEF is probably using debt in a pretty reasonable way. But the interest payments are certainly sufficient to have us thinking about how affordable its debt is. We also note that HOCHTIEF improved its EBIT from a last year's loss to a positive €84m. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine HOCHTIEF's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it is important to check how much of its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) converts to actual free cash flow. Happily for any shareholders, HOCHTIEF actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last year. That sort of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee suit.
Our View
HOCHTIEF's level of total liabilities and interest cover definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But the good news is it seems to be able to convert EBIT to free cash flow with ease. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think HOCHTIEF's debt poses some risks to the business. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for HOCHTIEF you should be aware of.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if HOCHTIEF might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About XTRA:HOT
Proven track record with adequate balance sheet and pays a dividend.
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