SAF-Holland SE Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Shareholders might have noticed that SAF-Holland SE (ETR:SFQ) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.7% to €17.80 in the past week. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at €507m, although statutory earnings per share came in 18% below what the analysts expected, at €0.53 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for SAF-Holland

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the five analysts covering SAF-Holland, is for revenues of €2.01b in 2024. This implies a perceptible 3.7% reduction in SAF-Holland's revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 2.6% to €2.10. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €2.01b and earnings per share (EPS) of €2.13 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of €25.20, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values SAF-Holland at €32.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €21.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await SAF-Holland shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 7.3% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 14% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.8% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - SAF-Holland is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that SAF-Holland's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €25.20, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for SAF-Holland going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for SAF-Holland that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.