Earnings Miss: SAF-Holland SE Missed EPS By 57% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

As you might know, SAF-Holland SE (ETR:SFQ) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at €440m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 57%, coming in at just €0.20 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for SAF-Holland

Following the latest results, SAF-Holland's five analysts are now forecasting revenues of €2.04b in 2025. This would be a reasonable 3.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €2.08b and earnings per share (EPS) of €2.23 in 2025. So we can see that while the consensus made no real change to its revenue estimates, it also no longer provides an earnings per share estimate. This suggests that revenues are what the market is focusing on after the latest results.

The average price target fell 9.4% to €22.46, withthe analysts clearly having become less optimistic about SAF-Holland'sprospects following its latest earnings. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values SAF-Holland at €28.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €18.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await SAF-Holland shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that SAF-Holland's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 3.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 15% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that SAF-Holland is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The clear take away from these updates is that the analysts made no change to their revenue estimates for next year, with the business apparently performing in line with their models. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of SAF-Holland's future valuation.

We have estimates for SAF-Holland from its five analysts out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for SAF-Holland that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.