We Think You Can Look Beyond Eastern Air Logistics' (SHSE:601156) Lackluster Earnings

The market for Eastern Air Logistics Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:601156) shares didn't move much after it posted weak earnings recently. We did some digging, and we believe the earnings are stronger than they seem.

View our latest analysis for Eastern Air Logistics

Zooming In On Eastern Air Logistics' Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

Over the twelve months to March 2024, Eastern Air Logistics recorded an accrual ratio of -0.11. Therefore, its statutory earnings were quite a lot less than its free cashflow. In fact, it had free cash flow of CN¥3.2b in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of CN¥2.32b. Eastern Air Logistics did see its free cash flow drop year on year, which is less than ideal, like a Simpson's episode without Groundskeeper Willie. Having said that, there is more to the story. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

While the accrual ratio might bode well, we also note that Eastern Air Logistics' profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥262m in the last twelve months. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. Assuming those unusual items don't show up again in the current year, we'd thus expect profit to be weaker next year (in the absence of business growth, that is).

Our Take On Eastern Air Logistics' Profit Performance

Eastern Air Logistics' profits got a boost from unusual items, which indicates they might not be sustained and yet its accrual ratio still indicated solid cash conversion, which is promising. Given the contrasting considerations, we don't have a strong view as to whether Eastern Air Logistics's profits are an apt reflection of its underlying potential for profit. Obviously, we love to consider the historical data to inform our opinion of a company. But it can be really valuable to consider what other analysts are forecasting. Luckily, you can check out what analysts are forecasting by clicking here.

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, as a guide to a business. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.