Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited Just Missed Revenue By 5.6%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

The second-quarter results for Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited (SHSE:600004) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues came in 5.6% below expectations, at CN¥1.8b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of CN¥0.10 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport's 13 analysts is for revenues of CN¥7.39b in 2024. This reflects a reasonable 5.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 35% to CN¥0.41. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥7.57b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.42 in 2024. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CN¥11.96 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport at CN¥16.40 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥8.20. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. For example, we noticed that Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 11% growth to the end of 2024 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 6.8% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.1% per year. So it looks like Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.