Revenue Miss: OPT Machine Vision Tech Co., Ltd. Fell 18% Short Of Analyst Revenue Estimates And Analysts Have Been Revising Their Models

It's been a good week for OPT Machine Vision Tech Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688686) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 6.9% to CN¥75.52. Revenues were CN¥227m, 18% below analyst expectations, although losses didn't appear to worsen significantly, with a statutory per-share loss of CN¥1.71 being in line with what the analysts anticipated. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for OPT Machine Vision Tech

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from OPT Machine Vision Tech's seven analysts is for revenues of CN¥1.12b in 2024. This would reflect a substantial 22% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 50% to CN¥2.28. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥1.16b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.64 in 2024. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a substantial drop in earnings per share numbers.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CN¥102 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on OPT Machine Vision Tech, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥132 and the most bearish at CN¥68.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting OPT Machine Vision Tech's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 30% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 8.8% per annum over the past three years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 18% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that OPT Machine Vision Tech is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded OPT Machine Vision Tech's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for OPT Machine Vision Tech going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with OPT Machine Vision Tech , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.