What Qijing Machinery Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:603677) 28% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

The Qijing Machinery Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603677) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 28%. While recent buyers may be laughing, long-term holders might not be as pleased since the recent gain only brings the stock back to where it started a year ago.

After such a large jump in price, Qijing Machinery's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 40.1x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in China, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 34x and even P/E's below 20x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.

It looks like earnings growth has deserted Qijing Machinery recently, which is not something to boast about. It might be that many are expecting an improvement to the uninspiring earnings performance over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Check out our latest analysis for Qijing Machinery

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Qijing Machinery's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Qijing Machinery's Growth Trending?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the market for P/E ratios like Qijing Machinery's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, we see that there was hardly any earnings per share growth to speak of for the company over the past year. Whilst it's an improvement, it wasn't enough to get the company out of the hole it was in, with earnings down 8.7% overall from three years ago. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 39% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's alarming that Qijing Machinery's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Qijing Machinery's P/E is getting right up there since its shares have risen strongly. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Qijing Machinery currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Qijing Machinery (of which 1 is significant!) you should know about.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Qijing Machinery, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.