Citic Press Corporation Recorded A 6.8% Miss On Revenue: Analysts Are Revisiting Their Models

There's been a notable change in appetite for Citic Press Corporation (SZSE:300788) shares in the week since its third-quarter report, with the stock down 10% to CN¥29.69. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CN¥401m, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at CN¥0.61 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Citic Press

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Citic Press from six analysts is for revenues of CN¥1.90b in 2025. If met, it would imply a decent 16% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 57% to CN¥0.99. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥1.91b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.96 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target was unchanged at CN¥29.81, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Citic Press, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥35.30 and the most bearish at CN¥26.26 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Citic Press is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 13% annualised growth until the end of 2025. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 2.5% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 11% per year. So while Citic Press' revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is expected to grow at about the same rate as the overall industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Citic Press' earnings potential next year. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Citic Press going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Citic Press has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit unpleasant) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.