Citic Press Corporation Just Missed Revenue By 16%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

The first-quarter results for Citic Press Corporation (SZSE:300788) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues were CN¥402m, 16% below analyst expectations, although losses didn't appear to worsen significantly, with a per-share statutory loss of CN¥0.61 being in line with what the analysts forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Citic Press

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Citic Press' six analysts is for revenues of CN¥1.85b in 2024. This would reflect a notable 9.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 37% to CN¥0.81. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥2.01b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.28 in 2024. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a large cut to earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of CN¥31.95, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Citic Press' valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Citic Press, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥33.54 and the most bearish at CN¥31.10 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Citic Press is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Citic Press is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 12% annualised growth until the end of 2024. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 0.5% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 13% per year. So while Citic Press' revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is expected to grow at about the same rate as the overall industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Citic Press. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥31.95, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Citic Press going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Citic Press has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.