Yunnan Aluminium Co., Ltd. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Yunnan Aluminium Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000807) last week reported its latest annual results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It was a pretty mixed result, with revenues beating expectations to hit CN¥54b. Statutory earnings fell 8.3% short of analyst forecasts, reaching CN¥1.27 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Yunnan Aluminium after the latest results.

After the latest results, the consensus from Yunnan Aluminium's ten analysts is for revenues of CN¥51.9b in 2025, which would reflect a perceptible 4.7% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 16% to CN¥1.47. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥52.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.65 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.

View our latest analysis for Yunnan Aluminium

Althoughthe analysts have revised their earnings forecasts for next year, they've also lifted the consensus price target 7.4% to CN¥20.40, suggesting the revised estimates are not indicative of a weaker long-term future for the business. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Yunnan Aluminium analyst has a price target of CN¥20.79 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥18.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 4.7% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 13% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 10% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Yunnan Aluminium is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Yunnan Aluminium. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Yunnan Aluminium's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Yunnan Aluminium going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Yunnan Aluminium that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.