China National Accord Medicines Corporation Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Shareholders might have noticed that China National Accord Medicines Corporation Ltd. (SZSE:000028) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.8% to CN¥27.88 in the past week. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of CN¥19b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 8.1% to hit CN¥0.57 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for China National Accord Medicines

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from China National Accord Medicines' seven analysts is for revenues of CN¥82.1b in 2025. This would reflect a notable 9.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 9.5% to CN¥2.90. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥82.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.96 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of CN¥29.69, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on China National Accord Medicines, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥40.00 and the most bearish at CN¥20.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the China National Accord Medicines' past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 7.1% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 8.2% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 12% per year. So it's pretty clear that China National Accord Medicines is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that China National Accord Medicines' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥29.69, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for China National Accord Medicines going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for China National Accord Medicines you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.