The China National Medicines Corporation Ltd. (SHSE:600511) Third-Quarter Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that China National Medicines Corporation Ltd. (SHSE:600511) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.4% to CN¥31.70 in the past week. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of CN¥13b and statutory earnings per share of CN¥2.84. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for China National Medicines

Following the latest results, China National Medicines' five analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥58.5b in 2025. This would be a notable 14% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 16% to CN¥3.33. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥59.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥3.47 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CN¥44.16, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on China National Medicines, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥47.60 and the most bearish at CN¥41.00 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that China National Medicines' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 11% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 4.0% p.a. over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. China National Medicines is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for China National Medicines going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with China National Medicines .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.