Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:600809) Third-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Next Year

Investors in Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:600809) had a good week, as its shares rose 7.1% to close at CN¥209 following the release of its quarterly results. Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine FactoryLtd reported CN¥8.6b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.41 beat expectations, being 2.4% higher than what the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine FactoryLtd

Following the latest results, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine FactoryLtd's 26 analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥44.0b in 2025. This would be a huge 20% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 20% to CN¥12.18. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥44.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥12.43 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at CN¥230, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine FactoryLtd analyst has a price target of CN¥300 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥126. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine FactoryLtd's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 16% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 24% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine FactoryLtd's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥230, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine FactoryLtd analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine FactoryLtd that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.