Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine FactoryLtd (SHSE:600809) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of 600809 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

600809 (CN¥324.8) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (CN¥195.26)

600809 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	0/6
Future Growth	4/6
Past Performance	6/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	4/6

600809 Stock Overview

Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.,Ltd.

Rewards

Earnings are forecast to grow 20.89% per year

Earnings grew by 69.6% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Unstable dividend track record

Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine FactoryLtd Competitors

Luzhou LaojiaoLtd

SZSE:000568

CN¥362.8b

Wuliangye YibinLtd

SZSE:000858

CN¥783.8b

Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery

SZSE:002304

CN¥274.2b

Anhui Gujing Distillery

SZSE:000596

CN¥114.6b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine FactoryLtd
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	CN¥324.80
52 Week High	CN¥380.77
52 Week Low	CN¥228.68
Beta	1.39
1 Month Change	19.19%
3 Month Change	25.50%
1 Year Change	-1.58%
3 Year Change	564.80%
5 Year Change	1,216.88%
Change since IPO	16,628.85%

Shareholder Returns

	600809	CN Beverage	CN Market
7D	8.2%	5.1%	3.2%
1Y	-1.6%	-11.8%	-10.1%

Return vs Industry: 600809 exceeded the CN Beverage industry which returned -11.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 600809 exceeded the CN Market which returned -10.1% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 600809's price volatile compared to industry and market?
600809 volatility
600809 Average Weekly Movement	6.4%
Beverage Industry Average Movement	6.8%
Market Average Movement	7.2%
10% most volatile stocks in CN Market	10.1%
10% least volatile stocks in CN Market	5.1%

Stable Share Price: 600809 is not significantly more volatile than the rest of CN stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: 600809's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1949	13,474	Zhong Bao Tan	https://www.fenjiu.com.cn

Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.,Ltd. produces and sells wine in China. The company was formerly known as Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Win Factory.

Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine FactoryLtd Fundamentals Summary

How do Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine FactoryLtd's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
600809 fundamental statistics
Market Cap	CN¥396.28b
Earnings (TTM)	CN¥6.84b
Revenue (TTM)	CN¥23.17b

57.9x

P/E Ratio

17.1x

P/S Ratio

Is 600809 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
600809 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	CN¥23.17b
Cost of Revenue	CN¥5.92b
Gross Profit	CN¥17.25b
Other Expenses	CN¥10.41b
Earnings	CN¥6.84b

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	5.61
Gross Margin	74.47%
Net Profit Margin	29.53%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0%

How did 600809 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

0.6%

Current Dividend Yield

32%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is 600809 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 600809?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 600809. This is calculated by dividing 600809's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 600809's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	CN¥396.28b

600809 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	16.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	41.7x
PEG Ratio	2.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 600809's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

600809 PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for 600809 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	39.1x
000568 Luzhou LaojiaoLtd	41.9x	17.3%	CN¥362.8b
000858 Wuliangye YibinLtd	31.5x	15.8%	CN¥783.8b
002304 Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery	31.8x	15.5%	CN¥274.2b
000596 Anhui Gujing Distillery	51.1x	21.0%	CN¥114.6b
600809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine FactoryLtd	57.9x	20.9%	CN¥396.3b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 600809 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (57.9x) compared to the peer average (39.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 600809's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CN Beverage Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 600809 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (57.9x) compared to the CN Beverage industry average (45.7x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 600809's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

600809 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	57.9x
Fair PE Ratio	45.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 600809 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (57.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (45.2x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 600809 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 600809 (CN¥324.8) is trading above our estimate of fair value (CN¥195.26)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 600809 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: 600809 is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (2.8x)

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Future Growth

How is Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine FactoryLtd forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 22 analysts?

Future Growth Score

4/6

Future Growth Score 4/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

20.9%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 600809's forecast earnings growth (20.9% per year) is above the savings rate (3.2%).

Earnings vs Market: 600809's earnings (20.9% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the CN market (23.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 600809's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: 600809's revenue (18% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the CN market (17.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 600809's revenue (18% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 600809's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (36.7%)

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Past Performance

How has Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine FactoryLtd performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

6/6

Past Performance Score 6/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

40.9%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 600809 has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: 600809's current net profit margins (29.5%) are higher than last year (23.5%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 600809's earnings have grown significantly by 40.9% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 600809's earnings growth over the past year (69.6%) exceeds its 5-year average (40.9% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: 600809 earnings growth over the past year (69.6%) exceeded the Beverage industry 18.3%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: 600809's Return on Equity (35.9%) is considered high.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine FactoryLtd's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 600809's short term assets (CN¥26.3B) exceed its short term liabilities (CN¥11.5B).

Long Term Liabilities: 600809's short term assets (CN¥26.3B) exceed its long term liabilities (CN¥102.4M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 600809 is debt free.

Reducing Debt: 600809 had no debt 5 years ago.

Debt Coverage: 600809 has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.

Interest Coverage: 600809 has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine FactoryLtd current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

0.55%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: 600809's dividend (0.55%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the CN market (0.48%).

High Dividend: 600809's dividend (0.55%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the CN market (1.94%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: 600809's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: 600809's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (32%), 600809's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its low cash payout ratio (20.3%), 600809's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

6.1yrs

Average board tenure

CEO

Zhong Bao Tan (57 yo)

no data

Tenure

Mr. Tan Zhong Bao serves as General Manager at Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.,Ltd. Mr. Bao was Chairman of the Board and Vice Chairman at Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.,Ltd. Mr. Bao serves...

Board Members

Experienced Board: 600809's board of directors are considered experienced (6.1 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/30 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/30 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31