Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.,Ltd.

SHSE:600809 Stock Report

Market Cap: CN¥243.3b

Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine FactoryLtd Valuation

Is 600809 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 600809 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 600809 (CN¥199.4) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CN¥347)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 600809 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 600809?

Key metric: As 600809 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 600809. This is calculated by dividing 600809's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 600809's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio19.7x
EarningsCN¥12.36b
Market CapCN¥243.26b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 600809's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 600809 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.1x
000568 Luzhou LaojiaoLtd
14.1x11.0%CN¥200.6b
002304 Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery
15.2x7.4%CN¥127.3b
000596 Anhui Gujing Distillery
17.9x12.8%CN¥89.4b
000858 Wuliangye YibinLtd
17.4x8.8%CN¥562.4b
600809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine FactoryLtd
19.7x12.3%CN¥243.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 600809 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.7x) compared to the peer average (16.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 600809's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CN Beverage Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
600809 19.7xIndustry Avg. 23.0xNo. of Companies6PE01632486480+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 600809 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.7x) compared to the CN Beverage industry average (23x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 600809's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

600809 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio19.7x
Fair PE Ratio27.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 600809 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 600809 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCN¥199.40
CN¥228.13
+14.4%
15.5%CN¥259.00CN¥126.00n/a16
Nov ’25CN¥208.76
CN¥231.21
+10.8%
16.5%CN¥300.16CN¥126.00n/a17
Oct ’25CN¥218.89
CN¥239.19
+9.3%
21.3%CN¥340.00CN¥110.00n/a17
Sep ’25CN¥176.83
CN¥251.70
+42.3%
20.6%CN¥354.00CN¥158.00n/a16
Aug ’25CN¥178.23
CN¥285.11
+60.0%
18.2%CN¥355.00CN¥160.18n/a17
Jul ’25CN¥207.06
CN¥292.48
+41.3%
13.4%CN¥355.00CN¥200.00n/a19
Jun ’25CN¥241.34
CN¥294.06
+21.8%
13.3%CN¥355.00CN¥200.00n/a19
May ’25CN¥262.31
CN¥293.61
+11.9%
13.6%CN¥355.00CN¥200.00n/a18
Apr ’25CN¥252.54
CN¥289.47
+14.6%
15.2%CN¥350.00CN¥188.00n/a18
Mar ’25CN¥237.00
CN¥289.47
+22.1%
15.2%CN¥350.00CN¥188.00n/a18
Feb ’25CN¥203.97
CN¥290.97
+42.7%
15.3%CN¥350.00CN¥188.00n/a18
Jan ’25CN¥230.73
CN¥291.80
+26.5%
15.3%CN¥350.00CN¥188.00n/a18
Dec ’24CN¥235.85
CN¥291.80
+23.7%
15.3%CN¥350.00CN¥188.00n/a18
Nov ’24CN¥251.01
CN¥296.84
+18.3%
13.1%CN¥346.00CN¥188.00CN¥208.7617
Oct ’24CN¥239.50
CN¥294.96
+23.2%
13.6%CN¥347.00CN¥188.00CN¥218.8917
Sep ’24CN¥249.20
CN¥293.74
+17.9%
13.2%CN¥347.00CN¥188.00CN¥176.8318
Aug ’24CN¥232.50
CN¥298.55
+28.4%
13.3%CN¥355.00CN¥188.00CN¥178.2317
Jul ’24CN¥185.07
CN¥308.75
+66.8%
12.1%CN¥355.00CN¥188.00CN¥207.0619
Jun ’24CN¥212.41
CN¥315.45
+48.5%
7.8%CN¥355.00CN¥265.00CN¥241.3418
May ’24CN¥248.46
CN¥321.66
+29.5%
7.0%CN¥355.00CN¥273.77CN¥262.3117
Apr ’24CN¥272.40
CN¥324.24
+19.0%
7.3%CN¥362.06CN¥273.77CN¥252.5416
Mar ’24CN¥284.30
CN¥326.69
+14.9%
6.2%CN¥362.06CN¥286.00CN¥237.0016
Feb ’24CN¥290.93
CN¥319.75
+9.9%
10.4%CN¥371.00CN¥248.00CN¥203.9716
Jan ’24CN¥284.99
CN¥313.34
+9.9%
10.7%CN¥371.00CN¥248.00CN¥230.7314
Dec ’23CN¥260.62
CN¥305.25
+17.1%
12.4%CN¥371.00CN¥230.00CN¥235.8515
Nov ’23CN¥250.98
CN¥311.19
+24.0%
13.5%CN¥371.00CN¥230.00CN¥251.0115

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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