Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600519) Just Released Its Third-Quarter Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

It's been a good week for Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600519) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 2.4% to CN¥1,565. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of CN¥40b and statutory earnings per share of CN¥15.23 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Kweichow Moutai is executing in line with expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Kweichow Moutai

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Kweichow Moutai's 30 analysts is for revenues of CN¥195.5b in 2025. This reflects a solid 18% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to ascend 19% to CN¥78.05. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥196.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥78.45 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at CN¥1,956. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Kweichow Moutai analyst has a price target of CN¥2,370 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥1,400. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Kweichow Moutai'shistorical trends, as the 14% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 14% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 12% per year. It's clear that while Kweichow Moutai's revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Kweichow Moutai analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Kweichow Moutai that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.