Kweichow Moutai (SHSE:600519) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of 600519 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

600519 (CN¥2002) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (CN¥1725.77)

600519 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	4/6

600519 Stock Overview

Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. produces and sells wine and liquor products in China and internationally.

Rewards

Price-To-Earnings ratio (45.1x) is below the Beverage industry average (45.8x)

Earnings are forecast to grow 15.05% per year

Earnings have grown 17.7% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

Unstable dividend track record

Kweichow Moutai Competitors

Wuliangye YibinLtd

SZSE:000858

CN¥755.9b

Luzhou LaojiaoLtd

SZSE:000568

CN¥346.3b

Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine FactoryLtd

SHSE:600809

CN¥363.8b

Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery

SZSE:002304

CN¥269.1b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Kweichow Moutai
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	CN¥2,002.00
52 Week High	CN¥2,216.96
52 Week Low	CN¥1,525.50
Beta	0.86
1 Month Change	11.97%
3 Month Change	13.43%
1 Year Change	-0.10%
3 Year Change	103.76%
5 Year Change	337.62%
Change since IPO	23,577.12%

Shareholder Returns

	600519	CN Beverage	CN Market
7D	-1.4%	-0.007%	0.1%
1Y	-0.1%	-8.5%	-7.1%

Return vs Industry: 600519 exceeded the CN Beverage industry which returned -8.5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 600519 exceeded the CN Market which returned -7.1% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 600519's price volatile compared to industry and market?
600519 volatility
600519 Average Weekly Movement	3.5%
Beverage Industry Average Movement	7.0%
Market Average Movement	7.2%
10% most volatile stocks in CN Market	10.1%
10% least volatile stocks in CN Market	5.0%

Stable Share Price: 600519 is less volatile than 75% of CN stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: 600519's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1999	29,971	Jingren Li	https://www.moutaichina.com

Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. produces and sells wine and liquor products in China and internationally. It offers aged, ordinary, and other Maotai liquor products. Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd.

Kweichow Moutai Fundamentals Summary

How do Kweichow Moutai's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
600519 fundamental statistics
Market Cap	CN¥2.51t
Earnings (TTM)	CN¥55.75b
Revenue (TTM)	CN¥111.22b

45.1x

P/E Ratio

22.6x

P/S Ratio

Is 600519 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
600519 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	CN¥111.22b
Cost of Revenue	CN¥9.18b
Gross Profit	CN¥102.04b
Other Expenses	CN¥46.29b
Earnings	CN¥55.75b

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	44.38
Gross Margin	91.75%
Net Profit Margin	50.13%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0%

How did 600519 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

1.1%

Current Dividend Yield

49%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is 600519 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 600519?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 600519. This is calculated by dividing 600519's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 600519's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	CN¥2.51t

600519 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	22.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	32.4x
PEG Ratio	3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 600519's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

600519 PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for 600519 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	38.7x
000858 Wuliangye YibinLtd	30.4x	15.8%	CN¥755.9b
000568 Luzhou LaojiaoLtd	40x	17.4%	CN¥346.3b
600809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine FactoryLtd	53.2x	20.9%	CN¥363.8b
002304 Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery	31.2x	15.5%	CN¥269.1b
600519 Kweichow Moutai	45.1x	15.1%	CN¥2.5t

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 600519 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (45.1x) compared to the peer average (38.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 600519's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CN Beverage Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 600519 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (45.1x) compared to the CN Beverage industry average (45.8x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 600519's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

600519 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	45.1x
Fair PE Ratio	48.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 600519 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (45.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (48.3x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 600519 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 600519 (CN¥2002) is trading above our estimate of fair value (CN¥1725.77)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 600519 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: 600519 is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (3x)

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Future Growth

How is Kweichow Moutai forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 26 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

15.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 600519's forecast earnings growth (15.1% per year) is above the savings rate (3.2%).

Earnings vs Market: 600519's earnings (15.1% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the CN market (23.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 600519's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: 600519's revenue (14.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the CN market (17.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 600519's revenue (14.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 600519's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (28.1%)

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Past Performance

How has Kweichow Moutai performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

17.7%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 600519 has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: 600519's current net profit margins (50.1%) are higher than last year (48.6%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 600519's earnings have grown by 17.7% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 600519's earnings growth over the past year (17.2%) is below its 5-year average (17.7% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: 600519 earnings growth over the past year (17.2%) underperformed the Beverage industry 18.3%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: 600519's Return on Equity (27.4%) is considered high.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Kweichow Moutai's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 600519's short term assets (CN¥215.8B) exceed its short term liabilities (CN¥36.1B).

Long Term Liabilities: 600519's short term assets (CN¥215.8B) exceed its long term liabilities (CN¥287.1M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 600519 is debt free.

Reducing Debt: 600519 has not had any debt for past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: 600519 has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.

Interest Coverage: 600519 has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Kweichow Moutai current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

1.08%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: 600519's dividend (1.08%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the CN market (0.48%).

High Dividend: 600519's dividend (1.08%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the CN market (1.93%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: 600519's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: 600519's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (48.8%), 600519's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonably low cash payout ratio (49.1%), 600519's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.0yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Jingren Li (57 yo)

3yrs

Tenure

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: 600519's management team is considered experienced (3 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: 600519's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.3 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/06 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/06 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31