Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600519) After Its First-Quarter Results

Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600519), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Kweichow Moutai reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of CN¥46b and statutory earnings per share of CN¥19.16, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Kweichow Moutai

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Kweichow Moutai's 30 analysts is for revenues of CN¥176.7b in 2024. This reflects a decent 14% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 14% to CN¥70.59. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥175.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥70.49 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of CN¥2,154, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Kweichow Moutai analyst has a price target of CN¥2,488 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥1,780. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Kweichow Moutai's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 19% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 14% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Kweichow Moutai is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Kweichow Moutai going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Kweichow Moutai that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.