Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc. Just Missed EPS By 8.3%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc. (SHSE:603899) missed earnings with its latest full-year results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Shanghai M&G Stationery missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of CN¥24b and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.52, falling short by 5.3% and 8.3% respectively. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Shanghai M&G Stationery after the latest results.

Following the latest results, Shanghai M&G Stationery's 14 analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥26.9b in 2025. This would be a solid 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 13% to CN¥1.71. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥29.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.96 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a real cut to earnings per share estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Shanghai M&G Stationery

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of CN¥34.37, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Shanghai M&G Stationery's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Shanghai M&G Stationery analyst has a price target of CN¥48.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥23.60. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Shanghai M&G Stationery's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 11% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 17% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 20% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Shanghai M&G Stationery.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥34.37, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Shanghai M&G Stationery going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.