Shanghai M&G Stationery Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Shanghai M&G Stationery is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 16.3% and 13.6% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 16.9% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 18.8% in 3 years.

Key information

16.3%

Earnings growth rate

16.9%

EPS growth rate

Commercial Services earnings growth	32.5%
Revenue growth rate	13.6%
Future return on equity	18.8%
Analyst coverage	Good
Last updated	01 Jan 2025

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc. (SHSE:603899)

Dec 11

Shanghai M&G Stationery's (SHSE:603899) Earnings Offer More Than Meets The Eye

Nov 05

Returns On Capital Signal Tricky Times Ahead For Shanghai M&G Stationery (SHSE:603899)

Oct 18

Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc. (SHSE:603899) Shares Fly 32% But Investors Aren't Buying For Growth

Oct 01

We Think Shanghai M&G Stationery (SHSE:603899) Can Manage Its Debt With Ease

Sep 16

Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc. (SHSE:603899) Shares Could Be 46% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Aug 03

Lacklustre Performance Is Driving Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc.'s (SHSE:603899) Low P/E

Jun 25

Shanghai M&G Stationery (SHSE:603899) Has A Rock Solid Balance Sheet

Jun 07

An Intrinsic Calculation For Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc. (SHSE:603899) Suggests It's 27% Undervalued

Apr 24

Statutory Profit Doesn't Reflect How Good Shanghai M&G Stationery's (SHSE:603899) Earnings Are

Apr 05

Earnings Working Against Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc.'s (SHSE:603899) Share Price

Feb 28

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

SHSE:603899 - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (CNY Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
12/31/2026	33,263	2,079	2,024	2,495	12
12/31/2025	29,229	1,804	1,818	2,259	14
12/31/2024	25,573	1,512	1,476	1,783	11
9/30/2024	24,606	1,454	2,394	2,690	N/A
6/30/2024	24,442	1,555	2,412	2,674	N/A
3/31/2024	23,955	1,573	2,312	2,549	N/A
12/31/2023	23,351	1,527	2,408	2,617	N/A
9/30/2023	22,126	1,441	1,597	1,763	N/A
6/30/2023	21,524	1,358	1,624	1,791	N/A
3/31/2023	20,649	1,340	1,331	1,483	N/A
12/31/2022	19,996	1,282	1,189	1,352	N/A
9/30/2022	19,185	1,336	1,331	1,512	N/A
6/30/2022	18,355	1,380	1,211	1,439	N/A
3/31/2022	18,024	1,465	1,054	1,401	N/A
12/31/2021	17,607	1,518	1,179	1,561	N/A
9/30/2021	16,752	1,460	834	1,363	N/A
6/30/2021	16,063	1,457	1,014	1,505	N/A
3/31/2021	14,866	1,353	1,309	1,695	N/A
12/31/2020	13,138	1,255	948	1,272	N/A
9/30/2020	11,732	1,171	1,020	1,298	N/A
6/30/2020	11,064	1,053	668	961	N/A
3/31/2020	10,869	1,032	439	724	N/A
12/31/2019	11,141	1,060	704	1,082	N/A
9/30/2019	10,359	984	765	1,014	N/A
6/30/2019	9,587	903	669	911	N/A
3/31/2019	9,050	861	596	965	N/A
12/31/2018	8,535	807	510	828	N/A
9/30/2018	7,988	768	456	835	N/A
6/30/2018	7,358	720	N/A	697	N/A
3/31/2018	6,785	673	N/A	550	N/A
12/31/2017	6,357	634	N/A	717	N/A
9/30/2017	5,703	588	N/A	659	N/A
6/30/2017	5,268	531	N/A	650	N/A
3/31/2017	4,942	513	N/A	668	N/A
12/31/2016	4,662	493	N/A	682	N/A
9/30/2016	4,330	493	N/A	601	N/A
6/30/2016	4,081	466	N/A	451	N/A
3/31/2016	3,940	459	N/A	460	N/A
12/31/2015	3,749	423	N/A	497	N/A
9/30/2015	3,570	392	N/A	345	N/A
6/30/2015	3,399	366	N/A	421	N/A
3/31/2015	3,229	362	N/A	338	N/A
12/31/2014	3,043	340	N/A	343	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 603899's forecast earnings growth (16.3% per year) is above the savings rate (2.8%).

Earnings vs Market: 603899's earnings (16.3% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the CN market (25.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 603899's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: 603899's revenue (13.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the CN market (13.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 603899's revenue (13.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 603899's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (18.8%).

Discover growth companies

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2025/01/02 22:45
End of Day Share Price	2025/01/02 00:00
Earnings	2024/09/30
Annual Earnings	2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc. is covered by 30 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Zhi Wei Yang	BOCI Research Ltd.
Xinyi Pang	BofA Global Research
Lei Yang	CGS International

Shanghai M&G Stationery Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Price target decreased by 7.1% to CN¥39.14

Price target decreased by 7.5% to CN¥45.99

Price target decreased by 8.4% to CN¥54.54

Price target decreased to CN¥58.86

Price target decreased to CN¥58.86

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11%

Recent updates

Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc. to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Mar 26, 2025

Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc. (SHSE:603899)

Shanghai M&G Stationery's (SHSE:603899) Earnings Offer More Than Meets The Eye

Price target decreased by 7.1% to CN¥39.14

Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.42 (vs CN¥0.53 in 3Q 2023)

Returns On Capital Signal Tricky Times Ahead For Shanghai M&G Stationery (SHSE:603899)

Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16%

Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc. (SHSE:603899) Shares Fly 32% But Investors Aren't Buying For Growth

Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Oct 30, 2024

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 25%

We Think Shanghai M&G Stationery (SHSE:603899) Can Manage Its Debt With Ease

Price target decreased by 7.5% to CN¥45.99

Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc. (SHSE:603899) announces an Equity Buyback for CNY 300 million worth of its shares.

Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc. (SHSE:603899) Shares Could Be 46% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc. to Report First Half, 2024 Results on Aug 28, 2024

Lacklustre Performance Is Driving Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc.'s (SHSE:603899) Low P/E

Shanghai M&G Stationery (SHSE:603899) Has A Rock Solid Balance Sheet

Now 23% undervalued

Dividend of CN¥0.80 announced

Now 21% undervalued

First quarter 2024 earnings: EPS in line with expectations, revenues disappoint

An Intrinsic Calculation For Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc. (SHSE:603899) Suggests It's 27% Undervalued

Statutory Profit Doesn't Reflect How Good Shanghai M&G Stationery's (SHSE:603899) Earnings Are

Full year 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc., Annual General Meeting, Apr 23, 2024

Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Apr 27, 2024

Earnings Working Against Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc.'s (SHSE:603899) Share Price

Now 23% undervalued after recent price drop

Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc. to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Mar 30, 2024

Third quarter 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind

Price target decreased by 8.4% to CN¥54.54

Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.29 (vs CN¥0.27 in 2Q 2022)

Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

Full year 2022 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations

Investor sentiment improved over the past week

Price target decreased to CN¥58.86

Less than half of directors are independent

Price target decreased to CN¥58.86

Investor sentiment improved over the past week

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11%

Third quarter 2022 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind

Second quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.27 (vs CN¥0.37 in 2Q 2021)

Upcoming dividend of CN¥0.60 per share

First quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Less than half of directors are independent

Full year 2021 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Second quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS CN¥0.37 (vs CN¥0.25 in 2Q 2020)

Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week

First quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS CN¥0.35 (vs CN¥0.25 in 1Q 2020)

Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS CN¥1.36 (vs CN¥1.15 in FY 2019)

Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc. to Report Fiscal Year 2020 Results on Mar 30, 2021

New 90-day low: CN¥75.22

Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week

New 90-day high: CN¥98.00

New 90-day high: CN¥95.32

New 90-day high: CN¥86.73

Price target raised to CN¥81.69

Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc. (SHSE:603899) acquired Peleg Design Ltd.

Price target raised to CN¥78.83

New 90-day high: CN¥82.27

Third quarter earnings released

New 90-day high: CN¥73.48

New 90-day high - CN¥71.27

Price target raised to CN¥68.20

Earnings released

Price target raised to CN¥63.95

Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc. to Report First Half, 2020 Results on Aug 22, 2020