The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Henan Senyuan Electric Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002358) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
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How Much Debt Does Henan Senyuan Electric Carry?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Henan Senyuan Electric had CN¥2.14b in debt in September 2024; about the same as the year before. And it doesn't have much cash, so its net debt is about the same.
How Healthy Is Henan Senyuan Electric's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Henan Senyuan Electric had liabilities of CN¥3.22b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥45.4m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥34.3m in cash and CN¥3.58b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it actually has CN¥350.5m more liquid assets than total liabilities.
This short term liquidity is a sign that Henan Senyuan Electric could probably pay off its debt with ease, as its balance sheet is far from stretched.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
While Henan Senyuan Electric's debt to EBITDA ratio (4.9) suggests that it uses some debt, its interest cover is very weak, at 2.3, suggesting high leverage. So shareholders should probably be aware that interest expenses appear to have really impacted the business lately. The good news is that Henan Senyuan Electric grew its EBIT a smooth 37% over the last twelve months. Like the milk of human kindness that sort of growth increases resilience, making the company more capable of managing debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Henan Senyuan Electric will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. In the last two years, Henan Senyuan Electric created free cash flow amounting to 14% of its EBIT, an uninspiring performance. That limp level of cash conversion undermines its ability to manage and pay down debt.
Our View
On our analysis Henan Senyuan Electric's EBIT growth rate should signal that it won't have too much trouble with its debt. However, our other observations weren't so heartening. In particular, interest cover gives us cold feet. Considering this range of data points, we think Henan Senyuan Electric is in a good position to manage its debt levels. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 1 warning sign with Henan Senyuan Electric , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About SZSE:002358
Henan Senyuan Electric
Engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of high and low voltage power distribution sets, electrical components in China.
Solid track record and fair value.
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