Xingmin Intelligent Transportation Systems (Group) Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:002355) Shares Climb 28% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

Xingmin Intelligent Transportation Systems (Group) Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002355) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 28% after a shaky period beforehand. While recent buyers may be laughing, long-term holders might not be as pleased since the recent gain only brings the stock back to where it started a year ago.

Since its price has surged higher, given around half the companies in China's Auto Components industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 2x, you may consider Xingmin Intelligent Transportation Systems (Group) as a stock to avoid entirely with its 4.2x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.

Check out our latest analysis for Xingmin Intelligent Transportation Systems (Group)

What Does Xingmin Intelligent Transportation Systems (Group)'s P/S Mean For Shareholders?

It looks like revenue growth has deserted Xingmin Intelligent Transportation Systems (Group) recently, which is not something to boast about. It might be that many are expecting an improvement to the uninspiring revenue performance over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Xingmin Intelligent Transportation Systems (Group) will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as steep as Xingmin Intelligent Transportation Systems (Group)'s is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry decidedly.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered virtually the same number to the company's top line as the year before. Whilst it's an improvement, it wasn't enough to get the company out of the hole it was in, with revenue down 50% overall from three years ago. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 23% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's alarming that Xingmin Intelligent Transportation Systems (Group)'s P/S sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Shares in Xingmin Intelligent Transportation Systems (Group) have seen a strong upwards swing lately, which has really helped boost its P/S figure. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Xingmin Intelligent Transportation Systems (Group) currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Should recent medium-term revenue trends persist, it would pose a significant risk to existing shareholders' investments and prospective investors will have a hard time accepting the current value of the stock.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Xingmin Intelligent Transportation Systems (Group), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.