Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of OC Oerlikon Corporation AG (VTX:OERL) After Its Interim Report

Last week, you might have seen that OC Oerlikon Corporation AG (VTX:OERL) released its half-yearly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.3% to CHF4.83 in the past week. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of CHF1.2b and statutory earnings per share of CHF0.10 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that OC Oerlikon is executing in line with expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on OC Oerlikon after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for OC Oerlikon

Taking into account the latest results, OC Oerlikon's eight analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be CHF2.41b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with OC Oerlikon forecast to report a statutory profit of CHF0.23 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CHF2.43b and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF0.23 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of CHF4.83, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on OC Oerlikon, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CHF5.24 and the most bearish at CHF4.50 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting OC Oerlikon is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the OC Oerlikon's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 0.9% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 2.3% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.7% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that OC Oerlikon's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that OC Oerlikon's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for OC Oerlikon going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - OC Oerlikon has 2 warning signs (and 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) we think you should know about.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.