Komax Holding AG Beat Revenue Forecasts By 7.3%: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Investors in Komax Holding AG (VTX:KOMN) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.7% to close at CHF133 following the release of its half-year results. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of CHF323m coming in 7.3% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of CHF8.53, in line with analyst appraisals. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Komax Holding

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the five analysts covering Komax Holding, is for revenues of CHF601.0m in 2024. This implies an uneasy 9.4% reduction in Komax Holding's revenue over the past 12 months. The company is forecast to report a statutory loss of CHF1.32 in 2024, a sharp decline from a profit over the last year. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CHF616.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF5.83 in 2024. There looks to have been a significant drop in sentiment regarding Komax Holding's prospects after these latest results, with a small dip in revenues and the analysts now forecasting a loss instead of a profit.

The consensus price target fell 14% to CHF163, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Komax Holding at CHF180 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CHF125. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 18% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 16% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.9% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Komax Holding's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts are expecting Komax Holding to become unprofitable next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Komax Holding's future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Komax Holding analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Komax Holding is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.