David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, ATCO Ltd. (TSE:ACO.X) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for ATCO
What Is ATCO's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2023 ATCO had debt of CA$10.7b, up from CA$10.2b in one year. However, it does have CA$693.0m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CA$10.0b.
How Healthy Is ATCO's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that ATCO had liabilities of CA$1.10b due within 12 months and liabilities of CA$15.2b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CA$693.0m as well as receivables valued at CA$672.0m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CA$14.9b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the CA$3.88b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, ATCO would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
ATCO has a rather high debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.2 which suggests a meaningful debt load. But the good news is that it boasts fairly comforting interest cover of 3.1 times, suggesting it can responsibly service its obligations. Given the debt load, it's hardly ideal that ATCO's EBIT was pretty flat over the last twelve months. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if ATCO can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, ATCO recorded free cash flow worth 54% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
Our View
On the face of it, ATCO's net debt to EBITDA left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But on the bright side, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. It's also worth noting that ATCO is in the Integrated Utilities industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. Overall, it seems to us that ATCO's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Be aware that ATCO is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About TSX:ACO.X
ATCO
Engages in the provision of energy, logistics and transportation, water, food and agriculture, real estate, and shelter services in Canada, Australia, and internationally.
Established dividend payer and fair value.